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11/12/2006 - Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Riley Skinner threw for 138 yards and a touchdown and Kevin Patterson returned an interception 48 yards for a score as 18th-ranked Wake Forest shut out Florida State, 30-0, in ACC action at Doak Campbell Stadium.
Skinner completed 13 of his 19 passes and Sam Swank kicked three field goals for the Demon Deacons (9-1, 5-1 ACC), who have won four in a row.
Kenneth Moore accounted for 115 yards of offensive, including 80 rushing yards on 24 carries in the win.
Xavier Lee and Drew Weatherford shared the quarterbacking duties, combining for just 113 yards passing with two interceptions each for the Seminoles (5-5, 3-5), who were held scoreless for the first time since 1988, when they lost to Miami, 31-0.
Offensively, Florida State couldn't get anything going and were held to just 139 total yards, compared to Wake Forest's 307.
The last time the Seminoles were shut out at Doak Campbell Stadium was in 1973, when they fell to Kansas, 28-0.
Swank's 20-yard chip shot put Wake Forest up 3-0 with 7:16 remaining in the first quarter. John Tereshinski's 24-yard reception coupled with a roughing the passer penalty on Florida State's Alex Boston advanced the nine-play, 69- yard series.
The Seminoles had a chance to score when they put together a 61-yard drive that bridged the first and second quarter, but failed to tie the game when Gary Cismesia missed a 46-yard field goal wide left.
After a three-and-out by the Demon Deacons, Florida State took over at its own six-yard line. On 3rd-and-8, however, Lee was intercepted by Alphonso Smith, which setup a 25-yard field goal by Swank to put Wake Forest up by six.
Then, on the first play of the Seminoles' ensuing possession, Lee was picked off again, this time by Stanley Arnoux to give the Demon Deacons the ball at Florida State's 18. Wake Forest wasted no time in taking a 13-0 lead as Skinner connected with Tereshinski for an 18-yard touchdown with 9:12 left in the half.
Rich Belton's 33-yard rushing touchdown capped a nine-play, 63-yard march to give the Demon Deacons a 20-point cushion with 2:39 until halftime. Kevin Marion had a 13-yard run and Moore picked up 12 yards on three carries during the series.
In the third quarter, Swank split the uprights on a 51-yard field goal to finish a 10-play possession with 3:31 left. Moments later, Patterson intercepted a Weatherford pass and took it 48 yards to the end zone, extending Wake Forest's lead, 30-0.
Game Notes
Florida State's Lorenzo Booker rushed for just 11 yards on eight carries...Moore finished with five catches for 35 yards...Florida State still holds a 21-3-1 series lead.
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
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The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
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