Alpha looms large in Withers

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/03/2012 - Ozone Park, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Local stakes winner Alpha has been made the even-money favorite in a field of seven for Saturday's $200,000 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. After a year's absence the Withers returns as a prep event for three-year-olds on the road to the Kentucky Derby.

Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin for Godolphin Racing, Alpha will start from the outside post with regular rider Ramon Dominguez in the saddle. The colt was the 4-5 favorite when winning last month's Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct.

"We're excited to be running him, to be in this position," said McLaughlin. . "Our stomachs were upset last weekend when Consortium didn't run well in the slop at Gulfstream (sixth in the Holy Bull), so we're thankful for Alpha. But we have to do it day by day, race by race."

Alpha, whose sire Bernardini won this race in 2006, has two wins in four career starts with $180,000 in his bankroll. He was second to Union Rags in the Champagne Stakes last October, but only 11th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

"The Withers is an important race because it's graded and you don't get to run in the Derby unless you have those graded stakes earnings," said McLaughlin. . "When you look at the schedule, you start with the first Saturday in May, and work back from there. We are taking the Withers as an important step, and maybe, maybe, afterward we'll talk about what we're going to do."

The 1 1/16-mile Withers is a preliminary race for Aqueduct's $1 million Wood Memorial on April 7.

The 4-1 second selection is King Kid trained by Dale Romans. The colt has drawn post four with Mike Luzzi getting the mount.

"He's a horse we've always thought a lot of, and we'd like him to run big Saturday and see if he belongs," said Romans who saddled 2011 Preakness champ Shackleford. "It would be nice to get $120,000 of graded stakes earnings and then be selective about where he'd go next."

Owned by McKee Stables, King Kid won in his first start in November and was third in last month's Gulfstream Park Derby behind Reveron. Reveron has drawn into Saturday's Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

Here is the full Withers' field from the rail out: Hakama, Julian Pimentel, 5-1; Speightscity, David Cohen, 20-1; Swag Daddy, Junior Alvarado, 10-1; King Kid, Mike Luzzi, 4-1; How Do I Win, Cornelio Velasquez, 10-1; Tiger Walk, Horacio Karamanos, 6-1 and Alpha, Ramon Dominguez, 1-1.

Post-time for the Withers is slated at 4:05 p.m. (et).

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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?

Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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