Angels, Mariners to square off in battle of reeling clubs

Baseball Betting Lines

05/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of slumping American League West rivals get together tonight in the Emerald City, where the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim collide in the opener of a three-game series at Safeco Field.

The Mariners have dropped six straight games, while Anaheim enters tonight's tilt riding a seven-game slide. Both teams are last in the division standings, 3 1/2 games behind both Oakland and Texas.

Seattle is still winless on its nine-game homestand after getting swept in back-to-back series with the Rangers and Tampa Bay. In Thursday's 8-0 loss in the series finale with the Rays, Ryan Rowland-Smith had a rough outing and lasted just 4 1/3 innings, permitting six runs on seven hits and three walks.

"I'm a better pitcher than what's going on right now on the field," Rowland- Smith said after falling to 0-2 on the season.

Ichiro Suzuki, Chone Figgins, Ken Griffey Jr. and Jose Lopez provided the hits for the Mariners, who were outhit by a 12-4 margin and have lost 10 of their last 12 contests.

Seattle has been struggling offensively in 2010 and sits second-to-last in the majors in average (.230), slugging percentage (.321), runs (91) and RBI (86). The club also placed outfielder Milton Bradley on the restricted list Thursday. Bradley recently asked the team for help with some personal and emotional issues.

Felix Hernandez hopes to leave his current issues in the dust when he takes the bump for the Mariners tonight. Hernandez has lost two straight starts since opening the season 2-0 with a 2.15 ERA, and is coming off a rough outing versus Texas on Saturday.

The righty was reached for five runs and eight hits over a season-worst 4 1/3 innings pitched against the Rangers, falling to 2-2 in six starts and boosting his ERA to 3.10. Hernandez first lost on April 26 at Kansas City, where he yielded three runs -- two earned -- through seven innings.

"King Felix", who tossed a complete game on April 21 versus Baltimore, will make his 17th career start against the Angels and owns a 4-5 mark with a 4.20 ERA in this series.

Los Angeles is coming off a four-game sweep at the hands of the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park and fell to 0-7 on a 10-game road trip. It entered the series in Beantown following a three-game seep by Detroit and blew an early 4-0 lead in last night's 11-6 loss to the Red Sox.

Scott Kazmir failed in his bid for his third win of the season by surrendering seven runs on six hits and five walks through 4 1/3 innings.

"I got behind on a lot of hitters, walked five guys. It's something where you're just fighting yourself," Kazmir said. "You're not going to have a good outcome when you're putting people on base every single inning."

Mike Napoli hit a two-run homer and Howie Kendrick ended with two hits and a pair of runs driven in for Anaheim.

The Angels will send Jered Weaver to the mound Friday with hopes of the right- hander rebounding from his first loss of the season. After beginning the year 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA in five starts, Weaver was pummeled by the Tigers in a 5-1 loss at Comerica Park on Sunday.

Weaver lasted a season-low 4 2/3 innings and allowed four runs and seven hits, despite striking out seven batters and walking just one. He was coming off a six-inning stint against Cleveland in which he allowed only one run. The wiry right-hander's season ERA rose from 2.53 to 3.19.

The Long Beach State product is very familiar with the Mariners, as evidenced by his 8-3 record and 4.61 ERA in 14 career starts against them.

Los Angeles went 10-9 against the Mariners last season and has won three straight and five of the last seven matchups between the clubs. These two teams split 10 meetings at Safeco Field a season ago.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.