Cards hope to revive postseason hopes in opener with Reds

Baseball Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The last time the Cardinals faced the Reds, they completed a three-game sweep that gave them sole possession of first place in the National League Central.

The teams have drastically gone in opposite directions since.

First-place Cincinnati will try to extend its eight-game lead over second- place St. Louis this evening in the opener of a three-game series at Busch Stadium that by the end could put the division crown out of reach for the hosts.

The Cardinals have won four straight and 10 of 15 versus the Reds this year and they posted a three-game sweep in the last meeting from Aug. 8-11 -- a series that featured a benches-clearing brawl thanks to some unkind words towards St. Louis by Cincinnati's Brandon Phillips -- to take a one-game edge for the top spot in the division.

"They silenced our bats a little bit and we didn't pitch that great," Reds starter Bronson Arroyo said after the sweep. "It's not even close to being over. We have plenty of games left."

The Reds have made the most of their games since the series, winning 14 of 18, while the Cardinals have gone 5-13 and have matched a season high with five straight losses to give the Reds their largest division lead of the season.

Arroyo lost the finale of that sweep but gets the first chance at extending his team's current division lead. The right-hander yielded four runs over five innings back on Aug. 11 to fall to 1-2 with a 4.78 earned run average in four starts this year versus the Cardinals. That includes an outing at Busch Stadium on May 31 when he was drilled for seven runs over 4 1/3 frames.

Arroyo has a 2.61 ERA over his last seven starts though and is 14-8 with a 3.82 ERA on the season. The 33-year-old is coming off just his second loss in six starts (4-2) as he gave up three runs on five hits over seven innings against the Cubs on Saturday.

While Arroyo has had his troubles with the Cardinals this year, St. Louis rookie Jaime Garcia has won all three of his starts in 2010 against the Reds with a 4.08 ERA. His latest win in the series came on Aug. 10 despite giving up four runs on two hits and five walks over 5 1/3 innings.

Garcia, though, hasn't allowed an earned run in 20 1/3 consecutive innings, fanning 19 in that span. His run began in a loss to the Brewers on Aug. 17 in which he was touched for three unearned runs over six innings.

The 24-year-old southpaw responded with his first career shutout, a three- hitter versus the Giants on Aug. 22 and then won his second straight start last Friday after posting 5 1/3 scoreless innings in Washington while working around eight hits and four walks with seven strikeouts.

Garcia is 12-6 with a 2.33 ERA this year and sports a 1.55 ERA in 12 starts at home. He'll be looking tonight to halt a four-game winning streak by the Reds, a burst that includes a three-game sweep of the Brewers.

Cincinnati wrapped the series with Wednesday's 6-1 victory, scoring all of its runs in the seventh inning. Ryan Hanigan blasted a three-run homer in the frame, while Scott Rolen capped the burst with a two-run single.

The victory also featured the first win of Aroldis Chapman's major league career. The 22-year-old Cuban lefty has yet to allow a hit over his two appearances, striking out three over two inning while unleashing a fastball that has gone over 100 mph.

Fans would be in for a treat if Chapman faces the Cardinals' Albert Pujols, who is hitting .358 (19-for-53) in 15 games this year against the Reds with three homers and 14 RBI. However, Pujols went hitless in 10 at-bats in St. Louis' three-game sweep at the hands of Houston.

The Cardinals were bested, 5-2, in Wednesday's finale. Matt Holliday drilled a two-run homer as St. Louis wrapped a 10-game road trip 2-8.

"We have to play better, obviously, but you just have to focus on the next game," Holliday said. "Sometimes if you get out and look at the big picture instead of focusing on the job at hand, you lose focus."

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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