Spartans can claim share of Big Ten title with win over Wolverines

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/07/2010 - East Lansing, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bitter Big Ten Conference rivals close out the regular season against each other this afternoon in East Lansing, as the Michigan Wolverines come calling on the 11th-ranked Michigan State Spartans.

Michigan has been up and down all season long, coming in at 14-15 overall and 7-10 in conference. The Wolverines blasted Minnesota in their last outing, 83-55, putting the brakes on a three-game slide and giving the team some much- needed confidence heading into this rivalry game. UM is just 3-7 in true road games this year, which includes a 3-5 mark against conference foes.

Michigan State can claim a share of the Big Ten regular-season title with a win today, as the team comes in with an overall record of 23-7 and a league mark of 13-4. The Spartans have been virtually unbeatable at home, logging a 14-2 ledger, the only two setbacks coming against top-10 league rivals Purdue and Ohio State. MSU has won its last two games, the most recent being a 67-65 thriller over Penn State, and has claimed victory in four of its last five overall.

Michigan owns a 91-73 advantage in the all-time series with Michigan State, but the Spartans have won 17 of the last 20 meetings, including 10 straight in East Lansing. MSU slipped by UM in the first encounter this season, escaping Ann Arbor with a 57-56 victory.

Relying heavily on only players to lead the way, the Wolverines are far from an explosive offensive team. In fact, they rank 10th in the conference in scoring (65.0 ppg), and their meager .417 field goal percentage has them sitting ninth. Defensively, Michigan is yielding just 61.6 ppg to rank fourth in the league, and there are only two teams in the conference who defend the three-point shot (.315) better at the moment. Manny Harris ranks third in the Big Ten in both scoring (18.2 ppg) and steals (1.8 spg), and he sits fourth in assists (4.1 apg). He has made more free throws (134) than any of his teammates have attempted at this point. DeShawn Sims (17.1 ppg) is the club's only other double-digit scorer, and both players also work hard on the boards, coming up with a combined 13.8 rpg. Sims made the most of his final home game on Tuesday night, scoring 23 points and grabbing six rebounds to lead Michigan to its 28-point shellacking of Minnesota. Harris added 22 points and Stu Douglass chipped in with 10 for the Wolverines, who shot a sizzling 60.4 percent from the field and drained 8-of-19 three-pointers along the way. One of the more impressive stats from that game is that Michigan committed just four turnovers.

Simply put, Michigan State is a very good team that knows how to play at both ends of the floor. The Spartans, who boast four double-digit scorers at the moment, are averaging 73.1 ppg on 47.6 percent field goal accuracy, and they are giving up just 63.9 ppg on typical shooting efforts of 40.7 percent overall and 32.5 percent from three-point range. MSU leads the Big Ten in assists (17.1 apg). Rebounding has also been huge for coach Tom Izzo's club, which comes into this regular-season finale with a league-best +9.2 rebounding margin. MSU's most productive offensive performer happens to be the reigning Big Ten Player of the Year in junior guard Kalin Lucas, who is shooting 46 percent from the field and averaging 14.9 ppg. Lucas also serves as the team's primary playmaker with his 4.0 apg, and he converts nearly 80 percent of his free throws as well. Raymar Morgan (10.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg), Durrell Summers (10.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and Draymond Green (10.3 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 3.1 apg) complement Lucas perfectly, and all are capable of carrying the team if its star is off his game. Lucas tallied just nine points in 28 minutes of action in the recent win over Penn State, as Morgan (16 points, eight rebounds) and Green (14 points, nine boards, four assists) took control. The Spartans watched as the Nittany Lions dropped nine three-pointers, but held strong in logging a 39-26 edge on the glass, a 36-20 advantage in points in the paint, and a staggering 26-1 margin in bench points.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.